Goldman Sachs economists predict that some 750,000 renter households are likely to lose their homes this year following the Supreme Court’s decision to block the federal eviction moratorium and the slow pace of emergency rental aid delivery.
Basing their prediction on rent delinquency data from real estate companies, federal agencies, and the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC), a trade and advocacy group for the apartment industry, Goldman analysts disclosed their prediction in a report released Sunday. It estimates that between 2.5 million and 3.5 million U.S. households are behind on their rent and, when the eviction moratorium expires at the beginning of October, between 1 million and 2 million households will face a higher risk of eviction.
“The strength of the housing and rental market suggests landlords will try to evict tenants who are delinquent on rent unless they obtain federal assistance,” the Goldman analysts said. “And evictions could be particularly pronounced in cities hardest hit by the [pandemic crisis], since apartment markets are actually tighter in those cities.”
“It does nothing to speed the delivery of real solutions for America’s renters and ignores the unsustainable and unfair economic burden placed on millions of housing providers, jeopardizing their financial stability and threatening the loss of affordable housing stock nationwide,” NMHC said in a statement.
While Treasury noted that grantees have had access to around 40 percent of their allotted ERA2 funds since May and that some of them were using up their remaining ERA funds and were transitioning to ERA2, the slow pace of aid disbursement overall risks these funds becoming reallocated.
“Too many grantees have yet to demonstrate sufficient progress in getting assistance to struggling tenants and landlords,” Treasury noted in the release. “After September, programs that are unwilling or unable to deliver assistance quickly will be at risk of having their rental assistance funding reallocated to effective programs in other high-need areas.”
“Our bottom line is this: No one should be evicted before they have the chance to apply for rental assistance, and no eviction should move forward until that application has been processed,” they wrote.