2018: The Year of Chinese Economic Decline

A foreseeable consequence of unsustainable ‘prosperities’ of export and consumption

Chinese people form lines outside of a construction site waiting to buy quality apartments in Shanghai, China, on March 2, 2005. China Photos/Getty Images

News Analysis

As we bid 2018 farewell, we see China’s 40 years of economic windfalls draw to an end—in this last year, the fact that the Chinese economy is in decline has become clear as day, and for many, is a great cause for concern. A Chinese economist warned recently that China’s economic growth in 2018 may be close to zero. As I see it, this decline is the logical consequence following the unsustainable “prosperity” drive-by exports and real estate development. Such a decline is guaranteed to continue.

The Professor’s Warnings

In 2015, the Chinese government moderated its growth-rate estimate to the lowest in a quarter-century, and admitted that the slowdown would become the “new norm” for China. But the Chinese authorities failed to clarify to what extent the economy would weaken. Now, there are warnings that zero growth may be what the “new norm” means.