BC Conservatives Edge Past Governing NDP in Latest Poll

A sign displaying the B.C. Conservative Party logo in Victoria on Dec. 6, 2023. (The Canadian Press/Chad Hipolito)

A new poll puts the Conservative Party of BC ahead of the governing NDP with just five months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election.

In the poll by Pallas Data, 38 percent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, with the NDP one point behind at 37 percent. The official Opposition BC United Party trailed at 13 percent.

When undecided voters were included, the Conservatives were even further ahead, placing first with 35 percent support, ahead of the NDP at 33 percent and BC United at 12 percent.

Divided into regions, the NDP dominated in Vancouver and Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives were on top in the rest of the province.

The results are based on a telephone survey conducted on May 14 with 848 B.C. residents 18 years of age and older. The margin of error is ± 3.4 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level.

Rebranding and Rise of BC Conservatives

The Conservative Party of BC’s renewal started in 2022 after Aaron Gunn, who had tried to run for the leadership of the BC United Party (then the B.C. Liberal Party) was blocked by party executives for social media comments.

Mr. Gunn joined the Conservative Party and began a rebranding campaign.

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The party saw a major win when now-Leader John Rustad joined the ranks in February 2023.

At the time, he had been sitting as an Independent after being kicked out of the BC Liberals (now the BC United Party) for reposting a social media post that said carbon dioxide is an essential element of life rather than a catalyst for global warming.

Mr. Falcon, BC United’s leader, responded by saying that Mr. Rustad did not represent the party’s position on the issue of climate change.

Mr. Rustad became the leader of the Conservatives in March 2023.

Amid recent speculation that BC United is in merger talks with the surging Conservatives to get a fall election victory over the NDP, the Conservatives noted that their previous request for discussions was rejected several months ago, when their polling numbers were lower.

Mr. Falcon told reporters on May 14 that “emissaries” from both parties were talking with each other to see if they could find common ground. However, Mr. Rustad said on May 16 that he intends to lead his party into the next election.

The Conservatives started gaining ground in October 2023, when a poll showed they had the support of 25 percent of British Columbians, up from 16 percent in July, while the BC United Party had fallen to 19 percent. The NDP was at 42 percent.

In September 2023, the party earned official status when MLA Bruce Bannon left the BC United Party to join Mr. Rustad in the Conservatives.

B.C.’s provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 19, 2024.